Ukraine conflict: Procurement of Russian aircraft at risk in South and Southeast Asia

Janes Markets Forecast estimates that the military aircraft market in South and Southeast Asia in 2022–31 will reach USD136.7 billion. (Janes)

South Asian and Southeast Asian countries are regarded by Moscow as key defence markets for its military aircraft, with Russian Mil military helicopters and Sukhoi fighter aircraft in use in the region, building upon some major defence co-operation agreements consolidated in the past decade.

However, the conflict in Ukraine is likely to adversely affect Russia's position as military aircraft supplier particularly in South Asia and Southeast Asia, where it is also a key economic partner for the supply of oil, gas, and raw materials.

As sanctions are imposed on Moscow by the US and its NATO partners and allied countries, Russia's ability to meet existing commitments and future regional defence requirements will likely be hampered. This includes demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, and spare parts to support existing fleets of Russian aircraft and helicopters in the region.

Janes Markets Forecast data shows that the military aircraft market in South and Southeast Asia in 2022–31 will reach USD136.7 billion, with uncontracted opportunities for new aircraft and upgrades of existing fleets forecast at about USD64.5 billion.

Russian companies are competing in some of the announced military aircraft procurement programmes in the region, such as Bangladesh's requirement for eight to 12 new attack helicopters, India's requirement for 110 new multirole combat aircraft, and Malaysia's upcoming selection of its new Light Combat Aircraft/Fighter Lead-in Trainer (LCA/FLIT).