Date Posted: 07-Feb-2025
Author: Heather Nicell, London, United Kingdom
Key points
- Event: A faction of the TPLF, a former militant group and political party led by its chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, has moved an unknown number of troops towards the disputed areas of Wolkayit and Raya in Ethiopia's Tigray region, according to private news outlet Borkena on 2 February
- Significance: The reported movement of troops further heightens existing tensions in the region. Since August 2024 tensions have notably increased within the TPLF, leading to a split within the party that month, highlighting the power struggle between two significant leadership figures in Tigray
- Outlook: Janes assesses that an increased risk of violence between the TPLF's two factions in Tigray region is very likely in the short term, as well as fighting with neighbouring Amharan forces. Increased violence would likely prompt intervention from the federal government of Ethiopia
Event
A faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), led by its chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, has moved an unknown number of troops towards the disputed areas of Wolkayit and Raya in Ethiopia's Tigray region, according to private news outlet Borkena on 2 February.
At the time of publication, the TPLF faction had not commented on Borkena's report. Janes assesses Borkena as B2 for reliability (usually reliable) and accuracy (probably true). Moreover, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed published a statement via his X (formerly Twitter) account on 3 February, calling for dialogue and urging the TPLF to resolve its differences with the federal government and “other forces” in a “democratic manner”, underscoring persistent tensions. The statement made no reference to the troop movements. Janes assesses that the “other forces” most likely refer to Amharan regional forces, with whom the TPLF has a historical dispute over Wolkayit and Raya.
In a press conference with local media on 5 February, the deputy chair of Debretsion's TPLF faction, Fetlework Gebregziabher, criticised Abiy's statement, comparing it to statements made by the federal government prior to the outbreak of the Tigray War in 2020. She claimed that these statements were an indirect threat of war. Fetlework stated that the region would resist “colonisation and invasion”, but that peace was the first choice. Janes assesses that this is very likely referring to ongoing conflict between the TPLF and Amharan and federal forces.
Getachew Reda (left), current leader of IRAT, listens during the signing ceremony of Ethiopia's permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement between the federal government of Ethiopia and the TPLF in Nairobi on 12 November 2022. (AFP via Getty Images
Significance
The reported movement of troops further heightens existing tensions in the region. Since August 2024 tensions have notably increased within the TPLF, leading to a split within the party that month, highlighting the power struggle between two significant leadership figures in Tigray.
Tensions within the TPLF first escalated when Debretsion held the TPLF's 14th Congress on 13 August 2024, despite the TPLF lacking a legal status and refusing requests by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) to re-register as a new political party. Former deputy chairman of the TPLF and President of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray (IRAT) Getachew Reda boycotted the congress, leading to Debretsion announcing the removal of 14 officials, including Getachew, from the party on 17 August for their refusal to join.
