PBO forecasts Canada won't meet NATO's 2% goal by 2030

A comparison of DND and PBO forecasts of Canadian defence spending as a percentage of GDP from 2024–25 to 2029–30. (Canadian Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer)

Ahead of NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC, the Canadian Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) published an updated forecast of Canadian defence spending compared with NATO's military expenditure goals. The report published on 8 July noted that NATO wants each member state to spend a total of at least 2% of GDP annually on defence, with at least 20% of military expenditure going towards new equipment. An alliance report in June indicated that “Canada has not met and is not projected to meet either guideline in the 11 fiscal years spanning 2014–15 to 2024–25”, the PBO said.

NATO defines total military expenditure as “payments made by a national government (excluding regional, local, and municipal authorities) specifically to meet the needs of its armed forces, those of allies or of the alliance”, the PBO report said. For Canada, the armed forces and Department of National Defence (DND) as well as elements of Veterans Affairs Canada are included. Other forces trained in military tactics and equipped so thatthey can be deployed outside the country alongside the armed forces, such as elements of the Canadian Coast Guard, may also be included, according to the PBO.