Analysing scenarios for intra-Afghan peace talks and US troop withdrawal

Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban began on 12 September in the Qatari capital Doha, the first official such talks between the two sides. The US government also participated in the talks, which had been due to begin in March but had suffered a series of delays because of disagreements over preconditions, such as the release of detainees by both sides.

The much-anticipated start of the intra-Afghan peace talks followed the signing of a peace deal between the United States and the Taliban in February, although key issues from that deal, such as the withdrawal of US military forces from Afghanistan, remain unresolved. A US Department of Defense report published on 1 July alleged that the Taliban was not severing its links with Al-Qaeda and other Islamist militant groups in the country as had been agreed in the deal.

Members of the Taliban delegation attend the opening session of the peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban in the Qatari capital Doha on 12 September 2020. Both the likelihood and timing of a complete US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan remain uncertain. (Karim Jaafar/AFP via Getty Images)

In an interview with Axios shown on 3 August US President Donald Trump stated that a new partial withdrawal would take place by the November presidential election, which would leave 4,000–4,500 US troops in Afghanistan, with a final decision on the withdrawal of remaining forces after the election. The timing, and even likelihood, of a complete US withdrawal is nevertheless uncertain.