Russia continues military build-up on Ukrainian border

Russian military positions near the Ukrainian border as of 1 February. (Janes)

Russia's military build-up in Belarus and along the Ukrainian border has continued unabated over the past 14 days. Social media indicates the frequency of deployments has increased, with daily sightings of equipment on the move at their highest since the build-up began in October 2021.

Eastern Military District (EMD) ground forces have begun deploying to several sites in Belarus, mainly along the country's southern border with Ukraine. S-400-air defence systems have also begun to arrive, and the Janes assessment is that one of the battalions – likely belonging to the 1529th Air Defence Regiment stationed in Khabarovsk – has been unloaded at Luninets railway station, about 50 km from the Ukrainian border.

In addition to EMD ground forces, multiple Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) units have also been identified deploying into Belarus. At least one battalion each from the 76th and 98th Airborne Divisions – stationed in Pskov and Ivanovo – and likely elements of the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade have also deployed to various locations in the country.

Russian military activity has also increased outside Belarus. There are now multiple indicators suggesting troops have begun deploying to forward camps to join up with their prepositioned equipment. Video posted on social media indicates some troops from Siberia, whose equipment has already been moved to sites in Smolensk and Bryansk, are in the process of deploying. Satellite imagery also shows the deployment of tents to 58th Combined Arms Army equipment stores in Crimea. The imagery also shows the likely deployment of a field hospital under way at the Angarsky training ground, indicating troops are expected.